China’s Unifying Plan: (2) Comprehensive Hostility Context of USA

Abstract:

China’s actions to unify Taiwan are essentially a major challenge to the existing US imperial order. Any assessment that underestimates this nature will lead to a serious expectation bias. The consequences of China’s unification actions will actually weaken the US-led, Europe-centred imperial order. It is reasonable to expect that the United States and Europe will react “tremendously” to this “small military action” by China. So much so that China must use the comprehensive and holistic response of the United States and Europe as the background for designing the variables of its action plan. These variable designs definitely include: dynamic strategy designs for Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, the United States, Europe and other aspects. Of course, there may be an unexpected outcome in which the United States does not respond to China’s military actions. This accident must be due to internal faults in the United States, but it will not become the political background of China’s overall design plan. In fact, China and the United States have been carrying out continuous assessments of their respective imaginary enemies. Pre-assessment of the enemy and self-assessment jointly determine their respective strategic plans. The results of these assessments will also affect any other countries that may be involved.

Key Words:

Unification; Taiwan; Imperial Order; Variables; Plan

 

Over the past 40 years, the world has seen many military conflicts or local wars. Relatively large-scale wars include the Vietnam-Cambodia war, the US coalition intervention in Yugoslavia, the US coalition intervention in Iraq, the US coalition intervention in Afghanistan, and the Russia-Ukraine war.

Compared to these wars, if China launches its military operation to unify Taiwan, the scale of the war will be significantly smaller than the above wars.

Regardless of the number of troops deployed on the battlefield, the duration of the war, the number of casualties caused by the war, or the basic level of people’s livelihood destroyed by the war, China’s war to unify Taiwan can only be regarded as a very small war operation. However, if this war really starts, its significance will be incomparable with the above-mentioned wars. This war may even be more important than the Korean War and the Vietnam War.

The direct and indirect effects of this war will develop in a variety of directions that cannot be clearly predicted in advance. But it will have the most certain result, which is to directly declare the arrival of the G2 century. Through this military action, China will initiate a process of power redistribution in the world power system.

The huge impact of this power redistribution process will not be limited to China and the United States. The response plans and processes of the world’s major powers to China’s move to unify Taiwan will affect the degree of turmoil and the final outcome of the new power redistribution process. Any political assessment that underestimates this essence will lead to serious expectation bias.

Understanding the significance and complexity of China’s actions to unify Taiwan will seriously affect the design of policy plans and contingency plans of the world’s powerful countries. It is time for the world’s powerful countries to invest time in thinking deeply about this military action. The most important country among them, and the country that needs to invest the most time in comprehensive thinking, is the country that initiated this military operation – China. China will definitely think carefully before taking action. China’s thinking background will also become the political background for the political thinking of other world powers.

I. Political Challenges to the US Imperial Order

1.1 China’s political ambiguity space shrunk

Since it became fully and deeply involved in the Hong Kong chaos in 2019, the US has actually launched a political action to label China as a hostile camp. As the target party, China has always refused to recognise this “hostile political process” that “actually took place”.

China has tried to defuse tensions with the United States by concealing or even denying US hostilities. At the very least, China hopes this won’t escalate the confrontation. Most Chinese politicians believe that it is in China’s national interest to seek a middle way to maintain relations (alliance) with the United States. This vague plan will remain in place at least until China militarily unifies Taiwan.

1) Chinese Sober-minded Group clearly understand the hostility of the US alliance. They deliberately deny or cover up the course of this political hostility in order to delay the full-scale hostility to the US alliance as long as possible. In the process, China’s national interests have been maximised.

2) Chinese Practical Group may not yet realise that the continuing hostility of the United States (alliance) is the main political thread of the United States. They may still imagine that “these political conflicts” between China and the United States are fluctuations and deviations in the timeline. They believe (or imagine) that such fluctuations and deviations can be corrected or reduced by their own efforts. This realisation has led them to work harder to improve China’s relations with the countries allied to the United States.

3) In any case, before China’s military reunification of Taiwan begins, all parties in China have some room for manoeuvre to postpone or downplay political conflicts with the United States in order to maximise China’s national interests within the existing imperial order.

Once China’s cross-strait military operations begin, China’s political ambiguity will be greatly reduced. The two groups, China and the United States, have indeed entered a state of head-on political conflict.

1.2 United States’ rule challenged

The United States has used military force to maintain the separation of the Taiwan Strait for 70 years. This is a political as well as a military fact.

When China challenges the authority of the United States in the South China Sea, it can find many veils to hide or obscure the facts of the Sino-US conflict. However, in the Taiwan Strait, the maintenance of the Taiwan Strait’s median line, and thus the actual separation of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, has always been operated and maintained by the United States itself. Once China launches a unified operation, there is no veil or excuse to hide the anti-American nature of this unified military operation.

1.3 US military authority challenged

Ye Qiquan has identified the United States as the leading force in the Ukrainian war since April 2022[1,2,3]. Perhaps this is true. But even if it were true, Russia, the other leading force in the war in Ukraine, has never announced that it is taking military action against the United States. They even deliberately added the veil of “special military operation” to deny the anti-American nature of this action.

The military authority of the United States has never faced a real challenge in a series of operations in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria and the former Yugoslavia. Even Iran is doing its best to maintain a non-conflict situation with the United States. In fact, Iran is on the defensive in the face of challenges from the United States and Israel.

However, the cross-strait military operation launched by China in 2026, even if the US military does not appear on the battlefield, will inevitably be recognised by the countries of the world as a frontal military conflict between China and the United States. And it will undoubtedly be recognised as a military failure for the United States. Because its direct consequence is that the separation of Taiwan maintained by the United States has been completely destroyed by China’s use of military force. This directly shows the gap in US military strength.

II. US imperialist order seriously weakened

If China’s cross-strait military operations are successful, it will weaken the ruling power of the United States in at least the following respects.

1. Permanently taking control of the Taiwan Strait, which the United States has had for 70 years;
2. Permanently reduce the “freedom of action” of the United States, Japan and South Korea in the Sea of Japan and nearby waters;
3. Laying the groundwork for a “land sword” or “land bridge” to undermine maritime rights;
4. Laying the foundation for, or directly contributing to, the withdrawal of US power from East Asia;
5. The retreat of US power in East Asia will lay the international political and geopolitical foundation for the formation of a “Pan-East Asia Cooperation Zone”;
6. Japan and South Korea may break away from the existing economic order and form, participate in or join a new economic order to maximise national interests;
7. Once Japan and South Korea join the new economic order, they will effectively declare the deconstruction of the existing economic order led by the United States and centred on Europe; or formally establish two parallel world economic systems;
8. If there are major mistakes in the response of the US alliance, it will quickly and directly lead to chaos in the core European area or a comprehensive European collapse.

III. Risks of deconstructing the US-led imperial order

(1) A large number of countries are preparing to challenge the US-led world order;

(2) A large number of countries are mentally prepared to resist the current system;

(3) When the strength of the United States is obviously insufficient, it will trigger the process of finding a new philosophical system and political system;

(4) The existing philosophical system and political system show obvious flaws in maintaining the ruling order; the search for new philosophical concepts and political concepts has become an inherent need throughout the world;

(5) Opposition forces will automatically look for action windows, new ways of action or new leadership nuclei. China’s unified military operations may start this process early.

IV. Context of comprehensive US hostility

1. From the above analysis, we can basically conclude that China’s unified military operations will pose a great challenge to the US-led imperial order. As the leading group of today’s imperial order, the United States and Europe will definitely make a “big response” to this “small military action”. The starting point is to reduce the damage and ensure the stability of the imperialist order.
2. Chinese politicians have to accept (actively or passively) a possibility. Therefore, China’s unified actions may uncontrollably usher in a new historical era or an era of chaos.
3. China’s action plan to unify Taiwan must be formulated in the context of a comprehensive and systematic response by the US alliance. This includes:

1) A different attitude towards Taiwan;

2) A different approach to South Korea;

3) Variable postures to Japanese

4) The concept of variables in the United States;

5) EU variables;

6) Variable design for India;

7) Container design to accommodate former opposition forces;

8) Design to deal with the possibility of total economic expulsion;

9) Mental preparation to define partners and powerful enemies in the historical process.

10) Preparedness to explore philosophical solutions to the new world order.

V. Accident outside the design context

The possibility outside the design context is that the US alliance will not respond violently to China’s military unification efforts. In a laissez-faire, indifferent or vague manner, it denies the anti-establishment nature of China’s military unification operations.

5.1 Moving beyond Chinese design

China will not design its course of action against the background of this possibility. Showing mercy to the enemy has always been taboo in Chinese military thinking. If China’s action plan is based on the design background that the United States (alliance) will not react violently to China, China’s overall system planning will inevitably face huge risks.

5.2 China Will Not Completely Ignore the Possibility

At the same time, China will not completely ignore the possibility of such a strange reaction. If such an opportunity arises, China will not miss it. At least, China will not react inappropriately to such a surprise.

5.3 Will not appear in the US pre-emptive response plan

Although it is in the best interest of the United States to reach an agreement in advance through comprehensive negotiations, institutional shortcomings mean that the United States and its allies do not have a sufficient window of opportunity to reverse anti-China public opinion. Solutions that best serve their national interests often have little room for practical implementation. Even if Trump wins with an absolute majority in 2024, he will at best only slightly reduce public hostility to China, or be forced to adopt appeasement or laissez-faire plans.

5.4 Geopolitical pressures in East Asia

US concerns about the consequences of a military conflict between China and the United States may escalate. In particular, the United States cannot afford the political consequences of Japan and South Korea breaking away from the US alliance because of a war. This forces the United States to choose between ignoring, obfuscating or even denying the anti-establishment nature of China’s military operations.

5.5 The pressure of the imperial order

5.5.1 Internal deficiencies

The United States is now facing difficulties in maintaining the world order it dominates. The cause of this difficulty is not China, but the need for the United States to find ways and means to maintain this order more effectively.

The maritime imperial order had its own internal advantages. But the enforcement of the maritime imperial order was costly. Whether Spain, Britain or now the United States, they all rely on the huge power gap between the centre of power and other countries created by a particular historical moment. As the power gap with other countries narrows, the ability to collect taxes will continue to decline, causing difficulties in the operation of the imperial order.

5.5.2 Expansion pressure

The inability to expand the empire’s overall governance or economic base is an important reason for the difficulty of operating the current imperial order.

The first expansion path of the American empire: economic contraction

Is the world’s economic progress driven mainly by people who understand economics, or mainly by people who don’t? In the 1930s, there was a lack of food and purchasing power, while milk and agricultural products were thrown away. In the 2020s, the vast majority of people in China are in debt and cannot afford housing. At the same time, large numbers of unfinished and completed houses have been abandoned. Waging war is essentially tantamount to using the country as a unit of calculation and discarding or destroying economic achievements.

Whether it’s downtown Toronto or downtown Philadelphia, there are rows and rows of destitute people sleeping on the streets. With so many people in need, we throw the food we produce in the garbage and the clothes we produce in the incinerator. This is absolutely outrageous and unacceptable behaviour. However, on a national level, this behaviour is often adopted. In fact, this behaviour is the main axis of historical development.

China’s national history is the most complete and continuous record of national history in the world. China’s ancient history shows that every 400 years, China will experience an act that completely destroys its existing economic base and economic aggregate. In the most severe case, the total economic and population loss reached 70%. Each economic devastation is followed by the next economic boom. This period of prosperity usually lasts for 100 years. This was followed by a stable period of about 150 years. Then comes the stagflation period of about 100 years. This is followed by a period of economic destruction lasting about 50 years. This cycle repeated itself and became the main axis of economic development in ancient Chinese history. Now the United States is unconsciously imitating the economic development path of ancient China.

Whether it is throwing away products or starting a war, the essence is to reduce the economic base and economic aggregate, thereby creating “false expansion space” for the next wave of economic expansion. This is the philosophical logic of the leading war-mongering countries of the imperial order. Use military force to weaken overall economic strength and create “false space” for the next cycle of economic expansion.

While the United States provided capital and markets to its allies in Europe and Asia (wealth expansion), it continued to wage war around the world (wealth contraction). This is a typical pattern for this approach to economic contraction.

American Empire Expansion Path 2: The Credit Expansion Method

It is indeed a great American invention to significantly expand the currency without causing an economic collapse, without relying on precious metal anchors. It can be seen that as long as there is enough room for economic expansion, “false credit” can also support long-term economic expansion.

The actual rate of world economic expansion is currently declining. The world’s ability to support economic development by fiscal means is declining. The means of credit expansion are severely constrained. The ability of the US to use its national debt to expand credit to the economy is limited. If the fiscal problems of the United States are not properly handled, this path of expanding credit to support economic expansion will run into difficulties.

US Empire Expansion Law III: Financial Expansion

The United States expands its national power through financial means. US financial power controls various high-value assets around the world through cyclical operations. But in essence, financial power cannot expand the size of the economy. The main function of finance is to redistribute wealth through the manipulation of power. In this approach, wealth gains in some countries are based on wealth losses in others. Even within the United States, the ability of finance to create excess wealth undermines the country’s real productive capacity. The United States suffered from classic symptoms similar to those at the end of the Spanish Empire. This is “great poverty based on great wealth”. “The capacity to produce wealth based on great wealth has declined.” “The theft of the real productive capacity of other countries by means of monetary amounts”. The imperial order is threatened when the channels for other countries to import real wealth or substantial productive capacity to the imperial ruler are blocked or partially blocked.

US Imperial Expansion Path Four: Scientific and Technological Expansionism

Computer technology and internet technology have had a huge positive impact on global economic expansion. The US imperial order was supported by the increasing tax revenues from economic expansion. It brought 30 years of prosperity to the United States. But it is clear that this wave of technological dividends seems to have reached its limit. Not only is it unable to support further expansion, but it now appears to be correcting the effects of its overexpansion (contraction).

US Empire Expansion Path 5: in the search

The explosion of computer and internet technology has underpinned the stability of the imperial order for 30 years. But now the dividends of this technological explosion are diminishing. The ability of the United States to collect the taxes necessary to maintain order in the Empire has been limited, making it difficult to maintain order. Mr Trump has tried to reduce America’s imperial power. He tried to reduce the burden on the United States by reducing the cost of running the empire. But his approach has met with strong resistance. However, it is foreseeable that in the coming period more and more people in the United States will study imperial management methods. How to better maintain the order in which the empire operates, how to better protect the national interests of the United States, and whether it is more important to maintain the order of the empire or to protect national interests. These are questions the Americans will be pondering.

5.6 The pressure of imperial rebellion

I am not sure that there is enough basis to see 911 as a typical prelude to rebellion against the US imperial order. But at least the wars launched by the United States in the 20 years after 9/11 were all against the Arab world. Including the war in Afghanistan, the war in Iraq, the war in Libya, the war in Syria and the quasi-war with Iran.

Not only the turbulent countries mentioned above, but other countries now seem to have completed their political and ideological preparations. They are ready to join the game of power redistribution at any moment. In Asia there are at least India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, China, North Korea, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Palestine. Europe includes Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Romania, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Finland, Sweden, Germany and Turkey. Almost all African states are opposed to the existing imperial order, and all it takes to inspire rebellion is the promise of a new distributive order or an apparent lack of American power.

VI.  Issues in mind before collision

China and the United States have jointly reached a historic intersection. A tackle / collision  stands in the way inevitably. What they need to do is to minimise the catastrophic injury when passing through this crossroads.

For the United States, the current focus of research and exploration is on how to further expand (or at least keep) the “power gap”. For China, the current focus of research is on how to narrow the “power gap” with the United States.

In addition to directional research, methodological research may also be very important for China and the United States.

6.1 Methodological issues in the US

There are at least the following methodological research issues in the United States.

1. The feasibility and risks on the United States keeping the current “power gap” or further widening the “power gap”.
2. The real and urgent risks to the United States on maintaining the existing “power gap”?
3. The overall strength of the potential anti-US imperial system
4. Profits and side effects on further weakening Russia
5. Benefits and risks on further weakening Europe
6. Benefits and risks on rising hostility towards China
7. Deficit and profits on allowing China’s unification
8. Benefits, risks and realistic possibilities on working with China
9. Benefits and risks on pushing China into another parallel economy system
10. Risks on maintaining the existing military pillars of the imperial order
11. How assess changes in the overall strength of land powers vs sea forces
12. Risks and benefits to the United States on relinquishing global leadership
13. What is the next generation imperial order model? Is it on the corner or far away?

6.2 Methodological research issues in China

China has at least the following methodological research topics

1.How to present to the outside world an image of a flawless unification process to thwart any military intervention

2. Effective methods and approaches to protect national interests in the face of military intervention
3. How to speculate on the reaction of politicians and public opinion in the US alliance to China’s unification actions
4. How to set up the maximum level of military conflict in advance
5. Benefits and risks of limited military conflict
6. Benefits and risks of full-scale military conflict
7. The selected options to maximum national intertests following the unification
8. Escalation process of limited military conflicts and corresponding response plans
9. Response plans for full-scale military conflict and restrictive measures to confine the highest level of conflict
10. How to recognise signals of compromise or appeasement from the American alliance
11. How to define the signal for the US alliance to escalate the level of war.
12. Benefits and risks on creating a parallel economy by forced or proactive means
13. Advantages and disadvantages of the US imperial order for China
14. Possibility that the United States will voluntarily give up its world leadership
15. Advantages and disadvantages for China on the United States relinquishing world leadership
16. Probability, possibility, and requirements on China to lead the world order
17. Kind of world order China’s philosophical logic support best
18. Comparison of the advantages and disadvantages on cooperating or dismantling the US imperial order.
19. Benefits and risks on building and leading an anti-American alliance.
20. Advantages, disadvantages and risks on leading small, medium and large anti-American alliances
21. How to predict and manage uncertainty of Europe
22. How to deal with blind moves of Europe
23. The advantages, disadvantages and long-term risks on promoting European chaos or restructuring the European power system
24. The short- and long-term consequences of the confrontation between Russia and Europe
25. Effects on China and the United States about the military conflict between Russia and Europe
26. Effects and impact on China, Russian, and Europe about the European Philosophical and Cultural War toward Russia
27. Security walls for Russian psychological and phisoloph security for new situation

summary

China’s actions to unify Taiwan are essentially a major challenge to the existing US imperial order. Any assessment that underestimates this nature will lead to a serious expectation bias. The consequences of China’s unification actions will actually weaken the US-led, Europe-centred imperial order. It is reasonable to expect that the United States and Europe will react “tremendously” to this “small military action” by China. So much so that China must use the comprehensive and holistic response of the United States and Europe as the background for designing the variables of its action plan. These variable designs definitely include: dynamic strategy designs for Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, the United States, Europe and other aspects. Of course, there may be an unexpected outcome in which the United States does not respond to China’s military actions. This accident must be due to internal faults in the United States, but it will not become the political background of China’s overall design plan. In fact, China and the United States have been carrying out continuous assessments of their respective imaginary enemies. Pre-assessment of the enemy and self-assessment jointly determine their respective strategic plans. The results of these assessments will also affect any other countries that may be involved.

Reference:

• Ye QiQuan. Walls in Russia-Ukraine War: Predicted on April 26, 2022. PPPNet. Apr. 11, 2023. https://en.pppnet.net/walls-in-russia-ukraine-war-predicted-on-april-26-2022/
• Ye QiQuan. Confined Walls still work in Russia-Ukraine War at least by 2026. PPPNet. Feb. 23, 2023. https://en.pppnet.net/confined-walls-still-work-in-russia-ukraine-war-by-2026/
• Ye QiQuan. Whose War? Players winning or losing in Russia-Ukraine War. PPPNet. Feb. 11, 2023. https://en.pppnet.net/players-winning-or-losing-from-russia-ukraine-war/
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