China’s Unifying Plan:(7A) Interaction between Europe, China, and USA

YE QIQUAN

March 29, 2023

Table of Contents

First Submitted

3 Oct. 2022

Updated Released

29 March 2023

24 Feb. 2024

Abstract:

Europe will inevitably be deeply affected by the Asian war in 2026. The dilemma for Europe is whether to intervene in this war or to flee from it. As an American colony and the leading group of the American-led imperial order, escaping this war is an extremely difficult process for Europe. Avoiding the war can neither appease the public opinion of European countries nor effectively prevent China’s rapid expansion of power in the political and economic fields. If Europe intervenes in this war, it will inevitably suffer a backlash from China. This backlash will lead directly to the formal and complete resumption of Europe’s “border movement” process. This will trigger a prolonged and profound European chaos and a restructuring of European geopolitical power. There is no clear direction from which Europe will view an Asian war in 2026. At the same time, Europe has no clear direction for thinking about its own security dilemma.

Keywords

Asian war 2026; European war 2022; National borders; Movement; NATO; Uncertainty

I: The 2022 war weakens Europe’s ability to decide whether to respond to the 2026 war

China’s unified military operation launched in 2026 will most likely trigger a full-scale military confrontation between China and the United States. Once there is a military confrontation between China and the United States, Europe will face a major syndrome of difficult choices. This Asian war will inevitably coincide with the European war of 2022. It is very likely that the two wars will partially merge. It is also possible that the two wars will merge completely and become one war.

Faced with an Asian war in 2026, Europe faces a difficult choice. Getting involved in an Asian war would involve huge risks for Europe. But staying out of an Asian war brings its own difficulties.

The root of Europe’s difficult choice lies in the European War of 2022. It is the European war of 2022 that puts Europe in an unfavourable political situation. That is why the European war of 2022 must be discussed before the Asian war of 2026 is discussed.

1.1. 2022, the war to weaken Europe

1.1.1 The Ukrainian Trench

The war process that started in February 2022 is really a war to weaken Europe. Its main result is the creation of a strong “Ukraine Trench” [1]. The function of this trench is to divide Europe into two parts: “Europe” and “Russia”. This trench not only cuts off the economic and political support of both sides, but also pushes both sides into a spiralling cycle of “hostility-consumption-more hostility-more consumption”.

The longer the Russian-Ukrainian war goes on, the more brutal the fighting, the longer the Ukrainian trenches are in effect, the more obvious the effect and the deeper the historical hatred between Ukraine and Russia.

1.1.2 Multiple weakening effects

(1) Europe and Russia have lost an important historical opportunity for “reconciliation and cooperation”;

Since the collapse of the Red Empire in the 1990s, Russia has actively pursued reconciliation with the West. This path to reconciliation has been up and down and not very smooth. The reasons are complex and varied. But Europe’s lack of initiative is certainly one of the main reasons. No matter how many reasons Europe has to delay the reconciliation process with Russia, triggering a confrontation between Russia and Europe will definitely only cause greater losses to Europe’s overall interests. As a result, Europe’s weight in the world power system has decreased.

(2) The historic opportunity to settle Sino-Russian oil and gas transactions in euros has been lost;

Long before the outbreak of war in 2022, Russia signed a long-term oil and gas supply contract with China. The settlement method explicitly specified in the contract is the euro. This will strongly support the long-term value of the euro. The 2022 war resulted in the Russian currency being banned from the SWIFT international interbank settlement system. The euro has also lost a cornerstone of its value.

(3) Increase the economic operating costs of both Europe and Russia;

Ye Qiquan believes that one of the starting points of the 2022 war is to create a solid “Ukrainian trench” to cut off cooperation and contact between European subjects and Russia [1]. This trench will separate the core of Europe from Russia for at least the next 50 years. Russia has lost its European market and Europe has lost its stable raw material base. This fact will inevitably increase the economic operating costs of both parties and thus reduce the market competitiveness of both parties.

(4) There will be long-term chaos in the core of Europe;

As early as May 2022, Ye Qiquan predicted that this European war would not end before 2026. Moreover, Russia will not suffer a major military defeat before 2026. After 2026, the direction of this European war will be seriously affected by the course of the Asian war in 2026 [1, 2, 3]. If the basis for this assumption is indeed correct, Europe will inevitably be plunged into long-term chaos.

(5) Depriving Russians of their “European” identity and planting nuclear landmines in Europe’s security and stability.

From an Asian perspective, it is difficult to understand Europe’s stubborn rejection of the Russians’ European identity. Although modern Europe’s capacity for conceptual creation and linguistic expression has reached a very high level, the constant statements excluding Russians are still extremely shocking. “Russians are not from the Caucasus”; “Russians have Mongolian blood”; “Russia will never become an empire without Ukraine”; “Ukraine is the largest country in Europe”. These similar linguistic and cultural expressions recur in important linguistic environments.

The historical trajectory, philosophical basis and humanistic foundation of the Russian people are all based on the identity of “Europeans”. Forcibly deporting them and depriving them of their European identity will certainly provoke hatred and backlash among Russians. Europe’s long-term security and stability is thus being laid like a nuclear mine.

1.1.3 A missed historic opportunity for reconciliation between Europe and Russia

Perhaps Europe’s hereditary fear of Russia is one of the internal psychological reasons for the Ukrainian crisis in 2013 and the European war in 2022. However, Europe’s default plan to dismember Russia through external force may have caused Europe to lose an important historical opportunity. That is, a historical window for reconciliation and cooperation between Europe and Russia.

(1) The Russian Empire is identified as the main historical pressure on Europe.

The Russian Empire is indeed a negative memory in European history. But the Russian Empire was not the only source of chaos in Europe. Sources of war that existed at the same time as the Russian Empire were the Ottoman Empire and the French Empire. Before the Russian Empire, there was the Mongol Empire. Before the Mongol Empire, there was the Arab Empire. But at the present time, Russia is the only shadow of empire that can be resurrected. That is why it has become the centre of European anxiety.

(2) Europe selectively ignores long-term sources of disaster in the region

Looking at well-documented history, Europe is the region where wars have been most frequent. The reasons for war are manifold. War takes many forms. The results of war have been varied.

If one were to count the cycles of war in Europe, one would easily find that the history of wars and massacres in Europe was mainly caused by different ethnic groups, different blood families, different tribes and different beliefs within Europe. But these reasons have not been effectively stored in the ideological memory bank of Europeans. On the contrary, the most frightening sources of memory in the memory banks of Europeans are the histories of “extraterritorial” aggressions such as Arati, the Golden Family and the Russian Empire. The length of time that this part of war history brought chaos to Europe should not have reached a quarter of the total. But this part of the memory is unconsciously reinforced.

In particular, the failure of Napoleon and Hitler to conquer Russia has repeatedly reinforced Europeans’ fear of the Russian Empire.

(3) Modern history has reinforced fear of Russia

Napoleon and Hitler failed in their attempts to conquer Russia. During the Cold War, the Red Empire once seriously threatened the military and political order of Western Europe and the United States. These memories, which have not been diluted by time, have become the standard philosophical basis for Europeans towards Russia.

The fear of vast territories became another important basis of European anxiety. The territory occupied by Russia as a country is almost twice the total territory of all other European countries. The huge strategic depth and the extreme and complex geographical environment make Russia a strong geopolitical power.

(4) The division of Russia is the dream of modern Europeans.

Modern Europeans worship secession and autonomy. Europeans believe that weak state power is the cornerstone of human rights protection.

The balance and mutual restraint of national power is the basic philosophical logic of European politicians. The theories and practices of different countries that constrain each other are full of the modern historical process of Europe.

For politicians and people who dream of splitting Russia, removing Ukraine from Russia’s sphere of influence is an important step towards weakening Russia.

(5) Depriving the Russians of their European identity is the new utopian dream of the Europeans.

Europeans have a strong philosophical mindset that denies Russians their European identity. After the chaos in Ukraine in 2013, a new civil movement to expel Russians was launched through widespread self-media and social media. The main operational plan of this movement is to continuously publish discussions on social media and self-media. And to constantly emphasise and repeat one argument, i.e. “Ukraine is the largest country in Europe”. This creates the “hypothetical fact of public opinion” that “Russia is not a European country and Russians are not Europeans”.

(6) Dividing Russia is not a shortcut to alleviating Europe’s security concerns.

l Perhaps Russia is indeed one of the historical causes of European security. But Russia should not be defined as the fundamental cause of European security. Without revising the European philosophical logic based on “tribal non-coexistence” and “uncertain prospects”, no external solution can fundamentally solve the problem that Europe is the root cause of world war. The root of Europe’s security dilemma lies in its philosophical logic of “uncertain prospects and tribal non-coexistence”. This philosophical logic is rooted in the long history of the development of European civilisation and the development of European countries.

l Europeans must commit themselves to discovering or creating a new philosophical logic to resolve Europe’s security anxieties. But you can imagine that this will be a difficult and long process. It is even possible that this process will need the help of outside forces.

(7) Understanding Russia

One hundred people must have 100 different understandings of the Russian dilemma in Europe. Ye Qiquan’s basic idea is that “breaking up Russia by external force is an unrealistic solution”.

Expelling Russia from Europe and depriving Russians of their European characteristics through external pressure is an impossible historical process. Russian self-identity is based on solid European philosophical ideas.
The first reason for Russia’s strong national power is the philosophical logic of the Russian people to sacrifice for the country, and the second reason is its territorial power.
Russia has a strong national capacity to mobilise for war. This power is based on the philosophical logic of the people’s strong self-sacrifice.
Russia’s vast territory is a strong support for the country’s geopolitical power.
Within a historical period of 50 to 200 years, the Russians will most likely extend their internal security border to the entire eastern bank of the Dnieper River.
Russia’s vast territory and extreme geography are not only the country’s geopolitical power, but also a huge burden on the country’s governance costs.
In an exchange-based system, it is impossible for Russia to achieve cost advantages in the production process. A relatively closed economic system can provide greater security for the Russian economy.
Providing a relatively closed economic framework and basic political and economic security for Russia may be a new idea worth discussing to appease Russia.

1) Loose external political pressure may be an alternative to alleviate the Russians’ security concerns.

2) In the environment of loose external political pressure, Russians will gradually realise the huge administrative and economic costs of the vast territory. This philosophical understanding may gradually correct the Russians’ territorial obsession.

3) Gradually rewarding Russia’s softer foreign policy, rather than fighting such corrections out of fear.

4) Dismembering Russia through external pressure is an almost impossible dream. The revision and development of the philosophical concepts of the Russian people is the premise and basis for the revision of Russia’s territorial obsession.

The consequences of the disintegration of the empire will create a series of political difficulties for Russia in the next 100 to 200 years.

1) In the next 50 to 200 years, Russia will face a number of problems in revising its political and economic relations with Belarus, Kazakhstan and other countries of Central Asia.

2) The development of ethnic relations between Russia, Ukraine and Belarus will be uncertain in the future.

1.2 The European Border Movement Process has been relaunched

1.2.1 The war to divide Europe

The war that broke out on 24 February 2022 is widely referred to as the “Ukrainian War” and the “Russian-Ukrainian War”. But perhaps a more appropriate name would be “New European War” or “European War 2022”: it is a truly European war. Its main results are:

The creation of a strong Ukrainian divide;
The permanent division of Europe into a European part and a Russian part;
The weakening of Europe’s overall political and economic power.
The resumption of the process of moving borders between European countries.

1.2.2 Forcing Russia to seek national security boundaries

The 2022 war will force Russia to seek secure borders. Including geopolitical borders and psychological security borders.

The separation of Ukraine from Russia’s sphere of influence has been the ultimate dream of the countries of the European system for half a century. The most typical and memorable description of this dream comes from a series of summary descriptions by Brzezinski.

Beginning with the Ukrainian crisis in 2013, Europe launched a cultural war against Russia. Various English-language public and self-media, blogs, question-and-answer media, reader comment sections and even data libraries are filled with a large amount of propaganda and public opinion. Their main argument is to emphasise and publicise that “Ukraine is the biggest country in Europe”. In this way, Russia is excluded from the European category at the level of philosophical and cultural thinking. To deprive Russians of their European identity at the philosophical and cultural level.

Regardless of the philosophical, cultural or historical level, Russians will cling to their European identity. Expelling Russia from Europe and depriving Russians of their European identity will cause great identity, cultural and security anxiety among Russians.

Returning to Europe is the fundamental need of Russians. In fact, this fundamental need may be so strong that Russia would rather give up part of its Asian territory in order to keep its European part – if it had to choose between the two.

1.2.3 Many countries ready to join the European border management process

Many European countries have completed the psychological and political preparations and are ready to join the new border movement process.

Are Europeans by nature warlike? Is this a strange question? After the Second World War, Europe was the main promoter and enthusiastic participant in the global anti-war propaganda movement.

If one were to compile statistics on the history of the post-war period, one might come up with some surprising data. Europe was the region most involved in the war. It has the most participating countries, the most frequent participation and the longest total duration of war.

Perhaps the most surprising thing is not the enthusiasm of Europeans for war outside Europe, but that they are as active as ever in a war that clearly weakens Europe’s collective strength. Obviously, even if it can be judged from an overall perspective that a war can weaken Europe’s collective interests, this cannot stop European countries from pursuing possible national interests from the perspective of individual countries.

It is quite obvious that Finland, Sweden and Poland have gained some practical advantages from this war. Romania and Hungary are also very close in their ambitions. These countries, whose overall national strength is not strong, are keen to throw themselves into regional chaos. This is a short-sighted and self-destructive behaviour that is completely incomprehensible in the context of Eastern philosophy.
Before it received the most unbearable warning of disaster, Lithuania was once one of the most active participants in war operations.
The fact that Germany is obviously the loser in the war process cannot prevent it from actively participating in a war that harms its own national interests. The leaders of the EU with German background shamelessly considered themselves as agents of the United States and did their best to advance the war process.
Chaos, war, deconstruction of order and reorganisation of power are words that generally have negative connotations in Eastern countries. Eastern politicians have often instinctively distanced themselves from them. They have tried to be as moderate and consistent as possible in formulating national policy. Trying to avoid major chaos and turmoil is a common principle in Eastern countries.
For many European countries, chaos does not always have a negative connotation. They have a philosophical logic that is completely different from the Eastern logic, and a thinking logic that is parasitic on it.
Sweden and Finland achieved their goals through chaos.
Poland has gained economic and political power by means of chaos.
Poland, Hungary and Romania seem to be very close to their territorial ambitions. There is even a high probability that they will be able to achieve further national gains.
Intuitively, Germany is a typical loser, but it cannot be ruled out that severe and prolonged chaos will bring significant benefits to Germany. Germany need not fear great chaos. The modern history of the last 200 years shows that the pan-German nation is capable of reaping the benefits of great chaos.
Italy and Hungary have for years pursued their national interests by acting as rebels within the system.
Greece is another “typical European example” of profiting from chaos.
Before China questioned the legitimacy of their countries, the three Baltic states, represented by Lithuania, were not afraid of their weak national strength and actively waged harassing wars against the superpowers.
Britain has always seen itself as the balance of power in Europe, and provoking chaos on the European continent has always been its habitual behaviour.
Turkey has always hated the post-World War II political order and territorial arrangements. Turkey has always tried to create chaos in Europe.
The United States is a “world typical example” of profiting from war and chaos. Through its actions, the United States has informed the world that war is a reliable way for powerful countries to make short-term profits and support long-term national interests.

1.2.4 China can promote, accelerate or intensify the process of European border movement

1.3 The 2022 War Has Changed China’s Fundamental Strategy Towards Europe

In May 2022, Ye Qiquan predicted that China might change its fundamental policy towards Europe[1]. The European war that breaks out in 2022 shows the fundamental nature of Europe. That is, Europe cannot play the role of a buffer valve for China’s political pressure. Accordingly, Europe has all the attributes of an American colony. Once China comes into conflict with the United States, Europe can only become China’s problem and cannot help China.

l Europe has all the characteristics of a “colony”. The active participation in a war that weakened Europe’s own political and economic power marked Europe as having all the characteristics of a colony.

l Europe, with its colonial character, will become (or has become) a huge burden for China, rather than the “political pressure relief valve” that China expects.

l Although Europe has the impulse and even the actual effort to get rid of the control of the United States, it cannot change the political fact that Europe is actually the power bloc of the current imperial system. Europe and China are actually in different camps of “defenders of order” and “challengers of order”.

lCausing Chaos in Europe, or the deconstruction process of European power, is an important step to prevent colonised Europe from intervening in the Asian battlefield.

l The weakening of colonised Europe was an important step in weakening the ability of the American alliance to sustain (long-term) war.

On 21 April 2023, the Chinese diplomat LU SHAYE may have heralded a new era. His speech may confirm that China has begun to implement a new policy towards Europe.

1.4 The 2022 war will merge with the 2026 war

Ye Qiquan once made a prediction in 2022 that the European War of 2022 will not end until 2026 [1, 2, 3]. There is a very high probability that this war will integrate, merge, or at least overlap with the 2026 war. The attitudes and countermeasures of the European countries towards the Asian war of 2026 will influence the direction and outcome of the European war of 2022 [4, 5, 6].

II: The Impact of an Asian War in 2026 on Europe

2.1. Promoting and intensifying the process of border movement in Europe

If the 2022 European war restarted the historical process of European border movement, the 2026 Asian war will officially and fully open this historical process.

Unless the US alliance successfully initiates a “pre-peace negotiation plan”[4], China’s military actions cannot be blurred into “legitimate acts”. Then, as the leading group of the existing imperial order, it must carry out a comprehensive political, economic and military intervention in China in step with the United States. This is the underlying logic and inevitable requirement for maintaining the existing power order.

After the European war in 2022, Europe is realistically closely tied to the United States (empire-colonisation). Comprehensive intervention in China’s political, economic and military expansion is Europe’s logical response. The feeble efforts of European countries to resist American control are not enough to change this political fact.

As a power component of the imperial order, Europe is also an important economic base for the American alliance to wage long-term and attritional wars.

In order to weaken the long-term war capability of the US alliance, China’s basic logic is to counterattack or attack Europe. Promoting, expanding and intensifying chaos in Europe’s core areas are necessary ways to prevent Europe from intervening in Asian wars or weakening its war capabilities.

Demonstrating China’s political superiority over Europe to European voters in advance is an important way for China to deter Europe from joining the 2026 Asian war.

Many countries in Europe, North Africa and the Middle East have completed psychological and even political preparations to intervene in political turmoil. Once the opportunity for European chaos arises, these countries will amplify the chaos in the European region.

2.2 Opening a hole in NATO’s overall defence.

NATO is the most powerful military alliance today

NATO’s strong military power is the logical basis for many small European countries to seek NATO’s military protection. It is also the basis for the US alliance to obtain political, military and economic benefits.

Russia seeks secure borders

NATO’s unwillingness to limit its immense power has led Russia to seek secure borders for the country, both physically and psychologically.

Europeans misunderstand Russia’s capabilities. In fact, Russia already possesses the comprehensive capability of “not being knocked down” [1, 5]. And it has another capability. It is the ability to push the physical border of national security to the eastern bank of the Dnieper River within a historical period of 50, 100 or 200 years. Ukraine is under long-term pressure to reshape its ethnic and state relations with Russia. Europe, too, must comprehensively rethink its long-term approach to Russia.

China-Russia cooperation opens a hole in NATO’s collective defence

Once Europe intervenes in an Asian war, China and Russia will definitely use a variety of complex and sophisticated means to break the full coverage of NATO’s collective defence agreement. This will create a gap in NATO’s collective defence. In particular, taking the three Baltic countries as a breakthrough point is a direction worthy of attention. NATO’s internal chaos increases the probability of this hypothesis.

2.3 Europe faces the dilemma of getting involved or allowing a war to break out in Asia.

If we look at the course of the European war in 2022, we can see that the United States’ control over Europe is unprecedentedly strong.

1) It is absolutely inconsistent with statistical principles to regard many European politicians and political professionals as political idiots. However, not only ordinary people in Europe, but also politicians and national leaders of various countries have unanimously and actively participated in the “Russian-Ukrainian war”. Active participation in a war that weakens and divides one’s own country is definitely not in accordance with the basic logic of politics and philosophy, nor with the basic laws of the historical process. In the end, this question can only be explained by the fact that “Europe is the de facto and substantial colony of the United States”.

2) It is extremely difficult for Europe, which has colonial characteristics, to escape from the US-led war decision. It is highly probable that Europe will join a US-led war to interfere in China and Asian affairs.

If Europe participates in US-led military operations against China, China’s backlash against Europe is an inevitable result. If China and Russia are fully involved in the Ukrainian battlefield, Europe’s core area, the Palestinian-Israeli dispute, North African hot spots, Syria, Iran, Turkey and other directions at the same time, the long-term chaos in Europe will be difficult to calm down.

After a violent and long-term chaos, Europe’s existing power structure will inevitably be redifferentiated, deconstructed or reorganised. The growth of Russia (or the new Russian alliance), Iran (or the Iranian-Saudi alliance), Turkey (or the Turkish bloc alliance) and the new German alliance will become Europe’s new geopolitical problems. This change will also redefine Europe’s political power structure.

It is also highly probable that the United States and the European alliance cannot militarily defeat China or a medium-sized (or even giant) alliance led by China and Russia [5,6].

Intervention in Asian wars can easily lead to total chaos and the deconstruction of order in Europe. Europe as a whole does not now have the capacity to comprehensively resist the Russia-China alliance. This is because the China alliance may include numerous anti-establishment forces in existing and potential trouble spots around the world, and even anti-establishment forces within Europe.

Allowing China to expand its power in the geopolitical and economic system will also make it difficult to appease domestic public opinion in European countries. It is also difficult to protect Europe’s economic decision-making power.

As a colonial Europe, escaping the US-led war in Asia is also an extremely difficult option.

2.4 The US response plan affects the complexity of the situation

Regardless of how China’s action to unify Taiwan is interpreted from any angle, its objective consequences are to affect the existing imperial power order. But the impact on the power order is closely related to the US response model. If the intensity of the US response is strong, the impact will be great; if the intensity of the US response is weak, the impact will be correspondingly weak.

2.4.1 Absorptive defence plan:

Absorption defence plans include “pre-peace negotiation plan” or “post-peace negotiation plan” [4]. The starting point is to conceal, ignore or even deny the anti-system characteristics of China’s unified actions. To recognise or transfer some political and economic power in order to reduce (or even deny) the impact of China’s actions on the imperial order. Opposition to this type of plan comes mainly from domestic public opinion in the Western alliance. Barring the sudden emergence of a super-political figure, this type of solution exists only in theory. However, this type of peace negotiation plan will provide an operational path for subsequent military appeasement plans and lay the foundation for the eventual conclusion of peace talks.

2.4.2 Coexistence Defence Plan:

The coexistence defence plan mainly uses the “military appeasement plan” to limit the level of military conflicts to a low level and at the same time to lead the domestic public opinion in the United States and Europe through low-level military conflicts. Let public opinion finally realise the fact that China cannot be defeated by military means. This understanding will then lead to comprehensive negotiations to achieve coexistence.

2.4.3 Offensive Defence Plan

Offensive defence solutions are a set of solutions that mainly achieve political goals through military intervention. Due to the different characteristics of the two superpowers, China and the United States, a comprehensive military conflict will mainly be conducted by destroying or weakening the sustained war capability of the other party. This unique feature determines that the battlefield must expand, spread and penetrate deep into the core areas of Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, Australia and even South America through certain channels or methods. This possibility can be expressed in plain language as the triggering of a “global war”.

2.4.4 Divided defence

Perhaps this set of options does not exist. Perhaps it is just a further development of the offensive or coexistence approach. It is characterised by the fact that the Chinese group and the American group are neither able to defeat each other nor willing to compromise with each other. It may also be based on the fact that China and the United States are afraid of compromising with each other. The result of the divisive defence plan is to split the world economic system into two parallel systems. A Western system based on the core areas of the United States, North America and Europe. An Eastern system with China, Japan and Russia as the main framework. Other countries will move between the two. But this plan will lead to continued chaos. Political chaos coexists with economic chaos, so this solution will not last.

III: Real Risks in Europe

3.1 The European war will not end quickly

The failure to achieve the political objectives of the major players on the European battlefield is the main reason why the European war will not end quickly.

US strategic goals have not been achieved

As early as May 2022, Ye Qiquan pointed out that on the battlefield of the European war of 2022, the strategic goal of the United States is to cut the political and economic ties between Europe and Russia by establishing a “Ukrainian trench”, and simultaneously weaken Europe and weaken Russia’s political power. [1]. These crazy predictions have been (or are being) confirmed by the subsequent course of the war and subsequent events.

1) The goal of digging the Ukrainian trench has basically been achieved, and the completion rate can be considered to be 90%.

2) The objective of weakening Europe has been partially achieved. It can be considered to be 30% complete.

3) The goal of weakening Russia is far from being achieved and may even have the opposite result. That is to say, an economy that mainly supplies raw materials may be able to survive without being dependent on the US economic system.

Prolonging the process of the 2022 European war may ultimately achieve the twin goals of weakening Europe and weakening Russia. At least the American League still has hope for this goal.

1) After passing through a period of war operations that the United States insists on, the United States may achieve its goal of weakening Russia, or it may give up this expectation completely. But now is not the time to give up.

2) The establishment of a low-cost war denial line will be another strategic goal of the United States. Obviously, the establishment of a ceasefire line in central Ukraine does not meet the low-cost starting point.

The failure of the United States to achieve its strategic goals, or the failure of the United States to abandon its strategic goals, is the fundamental reason why the war in 2022 will not end quickly.

Poland, Romania, Hungary have not yet made strategic gains

Of these three countries, the one with the deepest involvement and the greatest willingness to intervene is Poland. “The Poles’ hostility towards Russia is innate”. This is a philosophical reason. The international political reason is Poland’s desire to gain national benefits from chaos. Weakening Russia, increasing regional political power and obtaining geopolitical dividends should be Poland’s three main political goals. Apart from a temporary increase in regional political power, Poland has so far received no other political dividends.

The prolongation of the 2022 war and the growing chaos in western Ukraine are reasonable expectations for Poland, Romania and Hungary to reap political dividends.

The three Baltic states want the war to continue

Weakening and splitting Russia is the political goal of the three Baltic countries. While Russia has suffered political setbacks since the war began, it has not yet suffered economic failure. This is one of the setbacks suffered by these three countries.

A short speech by a Chinese diplomat caused the three Baltic countries to suffer the most serious political defeat. The political basis for the existence of the three Baltic countries has been seriously weakened. Obviously, this is the most vicious speech from China to European countries so far. Although the Chinese diplomat’s speech will not immediately change the existing international political reality, it will to some extent put the three Baltic countries under long-term political pressure. And there is a certain probability that this pressure will turn into a real threat to these three countries.

If Russia’s national power had not been greatly weakened, the three Baltic countries would have been under even more serious political pressure than they are now.

These three countries are currently unwilling (dare not) to take centre stage against Russia. But prolonging the war behind the curtain will be their main political objective.

Russia sheds political hesitation

The European war of 2022 was launched under the veil of a “special military operation”. Putin’s political hesitation is clearly visible in the names and methods used by Russia. That is, when Putin pursues political goals, he is unwilling to enter into formal political confrontation with the American alliance.

It is precisely because of this political hesitation that Russia’s first phase of special military operations did not achieve the results Putin had hoped for. (This is at least one of the reasons).

As the war progressed, Russia gradually abandoned its original political hesitation. Now Russia has adopted pragmatic means to pursue the country’s real interests.

Russia has realised that its original political and economic ties with Europe have essentially been severed. It also realises that the US-European Union is launching a cultural campaign to “drive Russia out of Europe”. The establishment of a secure border to protect the country and the nation has become the consensus of the Russian people. In other words, continued military pressure on Ukraine has become Russia’s national policy.

China expects European war to continue

Before 2019, the country in the world most looking forward to the completion of European integration may not be a European country, but an Asian one. That country is China. The birth of the euro and the gradual growth of European power have narrowed the “power gap” between Europe and the United States. Therefore, China believes that Europe can play the role of a political pressure regulator, thereby reducing the pressure on China from the United States.

China’s utopian ideals have been shattered by a series of events. The “Xinjiang concentration camp incident”, the “Xinjiang cotton incident”, the “repeated reversals of Czech and Hungarian policy on China”, the “establishment of official relations between Lithuania and Taiwan”, the “COVIE 19 theory of China’s guilt”, the “active involvement of European countries in the 2022 European war”, all these examples lead to a clear conclusion. It’s “Europe is an American colony”. Europe has complete colonial characteristics. Europe has to follow US foreign policy.

It was clear that Europe, as a colony, could not afford to act as a political pressure regulator. Once there is a military conflict between China and the United States, Europe must be an organic part of the American alliance. This means that Europe will only become a burden to China and cannot help China as a “political pressure valve”.

After the outbreak of war in Europe in 2022, there is reason to speculate that China has completely reversed its basic policy towards Europe. The previous plan to support European integration and a strong Europe has turned into a plan to weaken and divide Europe. It is reasonable to assume that preventing Europe from becoming the US war machine has become China’s new national policy.

Before 21 April 2023, China and Europe had experienced a series of political conflicts. In all these conflicts, China has limited itself to the defensive side. According to this principle, China keeps to the defensive side and responds to challenges from Europe only on a case-by-case basis.

On 21 April 2023, the Chinese diplomat LU SHAYE would inaugurate a new era. In an interview with a French television organisation, he directly questioned the international legal status of the countries that broke away from the former Soviet Union[7]. His speech was a very clear indicator. He pointed out that China’s counter-attack against Europe has gone beyond a case-by-case counter-attack plan. China’s counterattack plan against Europe has escalated to weaken Europe’s political stability and offensive capabilities. China has completely abandoned its previous defence plan for Europe, which focused on defence.

The continuation and prolongation of the European war in 2022 is an effective plan to weaken Europe. At the same time, the continuation of this war will provide a good basis for possible deep cooperation between China and Russia in the future. This solution could even support the successful establishment of a “parallel economic system”. Once the United States excludes China from the existing economic system, this “parallel economic system” will become the survival ground for China and its allies.

Figure 3: Lu Shaye’s speech marks the beginning of a new era for China’s European policy (Photo: Ye Qiquan PPPNET)

3.2 The war in Asia is spreading to Europe.

1) European public opinion has a serious hatred of China. This was the public opinion basis for Europe’s intervention in the Asian war.

2) China is afraid of Europe. Europe’s participation in the 2026 Asian War will have serious consequences for China.

3) Demonstrating China’s political superiority over Europe is an effective solution to prevent Europe from intervening in Asian wars.

4) Causing political and economic chaos in Europe is an effective way to weaken Europe’s war capabilities.

5) Creating political chaos in Europe is a necessary solution to completely defeat the US-European system.

3.3 The European “Border Movement” process has been initiated;

3.4 NATO’s collective defence mechanism has been torn apart;

3.5 Europe’s power to formulate economic rules has been weakened;

3.6 Europe’s ability to wage conceptual wars has been significantly weakened;

3.7 Europe’s existing power structures are being deconstructed.

3.8 New geopolitical powers will emerge and geopolitical forces will be reorganised or reintegrated;

IV. European values and expressions

4.1 The value of Europe

(1) Economic power

Economic power remains the mainstay and foundation of European values. In terms of population, market capacity, existing wealth base, industrial production capacity and technological level, Europe is still ahead of the world average. This capacity ensures that Europe will maintain a strong influence in the existing or future new economic system. Whether the world remains a single economic system or splits into two parallel economic systems, Europe’s economic capacity, economic value and economic power cannot be ignored.

(2) Cultural value

The level of education of Europeans has always been among the highest in the world. This characteristic ensures that Europeans have a say in the cultural field. Europe has been able to maintain its cultural influence even in an era of chaos. Cultural values and the power of European civilisation can ensure that Europe becomes one of the main pillars of strength in any world order.

(3) Major forces in philosophical debates

Europe will remain the main force in finding new philosophical solutions for the world.

Europe has been a hotspot of world war and chaos since the beginning of recorded history. This historical situation led many Europeans to turn to philosophical thought. Therefore, the most important philosophical schools, philosophical methods and philosophical research methods in modern times have mainly come from Europe. Unfortunately, however, Europe has not yet developed a dominant philosophical view of history.

1) The formation and practice of the industrial capitalist social structure is Europe’s contribution to the world.

2) The theoretical derivation of socialism comes from Europe. The research and experiments on socialist social structures also have the most diverse experimental samples in Europe.

3) Europe is also a region where the integration of capitalist social structure and socialist social structure has been relatively successful.

4) European social management models are diverse and provide a variety of experiences for world management models.

The world is currently in a state of de facto mismanagement. The US-led imperial order is dysfunctional. Europe is at the centre of various disputes and struggles. If new philosophical theories and philosophical ways are created, the chances of them appearing in Europe are quite high.

4.2 Ways of embodying European values

4.2.1 Get rid of the colonial status

Regardless of active or passive reasons, European countries will be actively involved in a war to weaken themselves in 2022. From every point of view, Europe has all or most of the characteristics of a colony. For Europe to demonstrate its political, economic or geostrategic strength, it must have the power to make important decisions independently.

The current anti-American attempts in Europe are extremely weak. The main reason is that the people have not yet formed a broad anti-colonial consciousness. In order to cultivate a broad anti-colonial consciousness among the people, it is necessary for the people to understand and acknowledge the colonial nature of Europe.

The existing active politicians in Europe have in fact become instruments in their growth to maintain the American colonial system. Expecting them to be at the centre of anti-colonialism is too high a political expectation. This important historical responsibility should be borne by a group of philosophical figures without a political identity.

4.2.2. A correct view of the process of deconstruction of European power

If Europe really falls into total chaos and the ensuing process of deconstruction and reorganisation of the power structure is seen from the perspective of individual countries, it will inevitably harm the interests of some countries while benefiting others. But the economic foundation, the political foundation and the humanistic philosophical foundation of Europe are still there. The political and economic power of these foundations is still there. Mao Zedong said: “If you don’t destroy it, you won’t build it.” This means that rebirth and reconstruction come after great loss or damage to an old structure. This philosophical truth suggests that even if Europe were to undergo a major reorganisation, its share of the world power system would not necessarily be significantly reduced.

4.2.3. Thinking about Europe’s future from a historical perspective

In order to make its greatest contribution to the process of human progress, Europe must really make use of its political, military and historical strength. The historical process of reorganisation of European power is inevitable. Avoiding this issue, or even using legal regulations or moral mechanisms to block this ideological process, will not necessarily produce positive historical effects.

4.2.4 Dialectical Thinking about the Asian War in 2026

The Asian War in 2026 will not only put enormous political pressure on Europe, but will also bring undeniable opportunities for Europe. It is still difficult to determine how Europe will choose a path and a response strategy that reflect European values.

The Chinese use one word to describe critical moments: crisis. This phrase means that opportunities for success are hidden in dangers, or that dangers often coexist with opportunities.

The war in Asia has not been a good opportunity for Europe. On the one hand, European politicians must be alert to the huge risks of getting involved in Asian wars; on the other hand, they must be mentally prepared to seize any great political opportunities that may arise. It is indeed a dilemma for Europe to be involved or not to be involved in the European war of 2026. From a historical perspective, it is also impossible to judge in advance which option will be more beneficial for Europe.

Summary

Reference

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