Confined Walls still work in Russia-Ukraine War at least by 2026

 

First published on October 27, 2022 in Google Blogger

Abstract:

Both the fighting and the ceasefire will be confined to two border walls, east and west, until at least the end of 2026. The western border consists of the Dnieper River bank plus part of the Black Sea coast. The eastern boundary wall is the complete administrative boundary of the Dobas. For the different territories in between the two boundary walls, the US group and Russia have different control capabilities.

Concepts:

WEST POWER ZONE
RUSSIA POWER ZON
RUSSIA PREDOMINATE ZONE
MAIN BATTLE ZONE 1
MAIN BATTLE ZONE 2
SECONDARY BATTLE ZONE

The border walls in Russia-Ukraine War
Western border wall
Eastern border wall

Content

The author’s articles in April [1], May [2] and June 2022 [3] stated that the fighting or ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian War would be limited by two solid boundary walls. The Western Border Wall, consisting of the Dnieper River coastline plus part of the Black Sea coastline (also named by the author as the L1 line or Western Confined Wall). The Eastern Border Wall, consisting of the administrative boundaries of Luhansk and Donetsk (also named by the author as Line L2 or the Eastern Confined Wall). Basically, these two walls form the boundary of the battle field in which the fighting and ceasefire happen. These two walls will remain functional until at least 2026. In other words, at least by the end of 2026, Russia will not break through the western border wall and the US will not be able to break through the eastern border wall. The US bloc and Russia have different controling capabilities over the different geographical areas between the two walls.

We can see how the war is going to play out in the next few years in the attached chart.

Russia will have no chance of breaking through the yellow zone (marked as West Power Zone).

The US bloc will also have no chance to enter the dark blue zone markedas Russia Power Zone.

The area shown in dark blue, including Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk, where Russia’s presence will not be shaken.
The positive blue zone is part of ZAPORIZHZHIA (Zaporozhye) and KHERSON (Kherson), located south of the Dnieper River. Russia will be firmly in the driver’s seat in this area. 
(The northern part of the riverbank of these two oblasts is included in the Main Battle Zone 1. This suggests that Russian control over the northern part of these two oblasts is weaker than that of the southern part of the riverbank).

Repeated fighting should take place mainly in the ODESSA and MYKOLAIV oblasts. The main objective is to control the Black Sea coast or to monopolise the Black Sea route. Another area of recurrent fighting is in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The Ukrainian army can exert strong pressure on Russia in this area. This large area is marked in light blue as MAIN BATTLE ZONE1. 

The northern part of these three oblasts is also likely to be the scene of repeated fighting. The main objective of the slavery in the northern part of the three states is to defend or seize the southern part of the three states. This area is marked in slightly lighter blue MAIN BATTLE ZONE2. 

The yellow zone was essentially inaccessible to Russia for a long time to come. Likewise, the dark blue zone is impenetrable to the US bloc. This situation will continue for a considerable period of time, at least until the end of 2026.

Reference:

 

1.  Ye QiQuan. Where will be ceasefire lines chosen in Ukrainian War. The submitted recept from Opinion Channel @guardian.co.uk. On April 26, 2022.

2. Ye QiQuan. Three Possible Ceasefire Lines of Russia-Ukraine War: Reality Basis, Opportunity, and Prospects. The submitted recept from International Security. On May 23, 2022.
3. Ye QiQuan. Three Possible Ceasefire Lines of Russia-Ukraine War: Reality Basis, Opportunity, and Prospects. https://destinedfating.blogspot.com/2022/09/three-possible-ceasefire-lines-of.html. Archived on September 18, 2022.
4.Ye QiQuan. Whose War? Players winning or losing in the Russia-Ukraine War. https://destinedfating.blogspot.com/2022/09/whose-war-players-winning-or-losing-in.html. Archived on September 14, 2022.