(research outline)
Abstract:
The history of military progress is a history of the search for more effective weapons. Weapons are tools used to destroy enemies. The ultimate destructive effect of a weapon can be perfectly reflected by its “effective range”. The earliest recorded battlefield weapon in China was the pestle. This is an effective weapon for controlling physical strength. After the Bronze Age, the spear quickly became the dominant weapon on the battlefield. It could achieve the same destructive effect at a slightly greater distance than the pestle. At the same time, the cost of updating weapons did not cause financial hardship. The bow suit was the first long-range weapon in history. Its appearance changed military theory. Military combat shifted from group conflict to relying on geography to kill the enemy without contact. Although the bow was a revolutionary advance, it failed to replace the spear as the dominant weapon on the battlefield for more than a thousand years. The main reason for this was its high economic cost. Finally, the bow had a brief history as the dominant weapon of the Mongol Empire. About 100 years after the appearance of firearms in history, they quickly overshadowed the glory of the bow and arrow. It replaced the bow when its range was inferior to that of the bow. When its use was still limited (it could not be used on rainy days), it replaced the historical status of the bow and arrow. The main reason is also economic. It doesn’t cost more to make than a bow and arrow. Its training costs are much lower than those of a bow and arrow. It costs much less to store and maintain than a bow. It is also much cheaper to use than a bow and arrow. This allowed it to replace the bow and arrow as the dominant weapon on the battlefield, even though its range was shorter than that of the bow. Later improved firearms also followed this path. The heavy machine gun was a key weapon in the First and Second World Wars, but the reason it did not eventually become the dominant weapon was economic. The revolutionary V1 and V2 rockets and the huge heavy artillery could not overcome the inferiority of the air force and navy, again for economic reasons. The Tiger tank, which had the leading offensive and defensive capabilities, was eventually defeated by the weaker T3, T4 and Sherman tanks. The reason is also economic. Although many countries now have missiles with ranges in excess of 10,000 kilometres, they are unlikely to become the dominant weapons on today’s battlefields. This is further evidence that economic factors determine the value of weapons. If it is eventually proven that the “effective range” of medium-range missiles exceeds that of the aircraft carrier battle group, the decline of the aircraft carrier will be inevitable. The decline of the political power parasitic on carriers will also be inevitable. The “effective range of a weapon” consists of three factors: killing distance, lethality and economy.
Key Words:
War; Development; History; Weapon; Effective Range; Killing Distance; Lethatlity; Economy.
I. The history of war is essentially a history of the development of the effective range of a weapon.
1.1 Definition
(1) The effective range of a weapon:
The effective range of a weapon consists essentially of three matrices. Range; Lethality; and Economy (ability to be used on a large scale).
1.2. First generation dominant weapons : Pestle and Pike
Looking at the history of ancient Chinese warfare, records show that before bronze technology was applied to warfare, the dominant weapon in warfare was the heavy wooden stick (Pestle, Pestle Club). After bronze technology was applied to warfare, the dominant weapon in warfare was upgraded to the Pike (long lance) . There are two bases for this upgrade. Firstly, to achieve the appropriate killing effect, because the killing distance of a pike is greater than that of a pestle; secondly, the comprehensive upgrade from a wooden pestle to a pike (long lance) will not cause the collapse of the national economy.
1.3 Second generation dominant weapons Bows and arrows
Figure: The first generation of long-range weapons in history – bow, crossbow, trebuchet
The bow and arrow were the first truly long-range weapons of destruction in history. It was the first revolutionary advance in weaponry. The advent of this weapon changed the face of war. For the first time, it was possible to intercept by taking advantage of the terrain and to win the battle by killing the enemy without physical contact.
However, in more than a thousand years of recorded history, the bow and arrow has not replaced the pike (long lance) as the dominant weapon of war. The main reason for this is that the cost of the weapon limits its effectiveness. The high cost of production; the high cost of storage and maintenance; the high cost of training personnel; these economic factors prevented the bow and arrow from becoming the dominant weapon of the ancient Chinese army in the more than a thousand years that it coexisted with the pike (long lance). It was not until the Mongol Empire that bows and arrows were upgraded to become the most important weapons in ancient warfare.
At the Battle of Crecy in northern France, the shorter range and less lethal bow defeated the longer range and more lethal combination of crossbow and heavy cavalry. The logic is that economy determines the outcome of a war or campaign. Economy is the most important factor in the effective range of a weapon.
1.4 Third generation dominant weapons: Firearms
1.4.1 Hand Cannon (Huochong):
When the range of hand cannons was less than that of bows and arrows, they quickly took over the leading role from bows and arrows. The reason for this is that the production cost of hand cannon is not more expensive than that of precision bows and arrows, but the training and usage costs are obviously better than those of bows and arrows. It can be seen that the role of effective range on the battlefield is far greater than the role of killing range.
Figure 12: The hand cannon replaced the domain of the bow and arrow when its range was less than that of the bow and arrow.
1.4.2 Musket, Rifle and Machine-gun:
Figure 12: Firearms once dominated a period of war history
The firearms developed after the hand cannon have a better range, a faster firing speed and a higher efficiency of use. The pursuit of greater effective range is reflected in the simultaneous pursuit of greater range and firing speed, taking into account economic costs. The heavy machine gun has a longer range and a higher rate of fire, but the economic cost makes the heavy machine gun only a key weapon during the First World War, rather than a decisive or dominant weapon.
1.5 Fourth generation dominant weapons: Artillery:
1.5.1 Cannon in Napoleon Era
1.5.2 Sea Power Cannon
1.5.3 Mobile Cannon
Figure : Mobile artillery dominated the flat battlefield of WWII
The relentless pursuit of greater range and more effective lethality meant that artillery was bound to appear on the battlefield. The Napoleonic era was a brief era of decisive artillery victories. But the economic characteristics of artillery limited its historical importance. It was not until the Second World War that mobile artillery (tanks) became the dominant force on the European battlefield.
Weapons of sea power:
Because of the ship’s high load-bearing capacity, heavy and bulky artillery can be mounted on board. This led to the development of ship-mounted artillery with super-high calibre and range. The mobility of the ship essentially ensures the reusability of this artillery in time and space windows.
This gives ship-based artillery a comprehensive advantage over land-based artillery in terms of range, lethality and cost. Because of its range advantage, ship-based artillery can destroy land-based artillery, but land-based artillery cannot destroy ship-based artillery. Thus began the era of naval superiority in the history of warfare. Superior naval power protected the military and political superiority of the Spanish, British and American empires.
Figure 14: Over the past 400 years, ship-based weapons have always had the advantage of killing distance and effective range.
1.6 Sixth generation dominant weapons：Composite range weapons:
The Asian battlefield of the Second World War was the most modern showcase for the development of weapons technology. It most fully embodied the theory that “the effective range of a weapon determines the final outcome of a war”. With the range of the mobile airport and carrier-based aircraft far exceeding the artillery range of the battleship, the battleship and cruiser completely lost their expected combat effectiveness. There was even a case where one of the most advanced battleships (Musashi) was sunk by aircraft taking off from a carrier on its maiden voyage.
Figure 15: Compound-Range Weapons Determined the Outcome of the Second World War Battlefield in Asia
1.7 Seventh generation dominant weapons：long-range weapons:
Represented by the V1 and V2 missiles, a new generation of long-range weapons officially entered the battlefield. But the revolutionary, state-of-the-art V1 and V2 could not reverse Nazi Germany’s air deficiency and battlefield inferiority. This is because the V1 and V2 do not have the economy that the leading weapons of war must have.
The maximum range of the missile now exceeds 10,000 kilometres. But long-range missiles are still not the dominant weapon in conventional warfare. For economic reasons, long-range missiles do not have the power to dominate the process of conventional warfare. Ukraine, for example, decided to give up its existing long-range weapons because it could not afford to maintain and service them. Even if North Korea has the capability of long-range missiles, it will not be able to use this weapon in actual conventional warfare.
There is another extreme possibility. It is the possession and use of weapons that are too expensive, which becomes the main reason for the user’s ultimate failure.
Economy, repeatability or affordability are the most important factors in the dominant weapons of war. Their importance even exceeds the killing distance and damage effect.
II. Economy is the most fundamental characteristic of the dominant weapon
2.1 Social organizational capabilities promote social and economic capabilities
2.2 Continuous warfare capability is the fundamental support for armed capabilities
2.3 Economic power ultimately determines the outcome of the war
III. The significance of China’s medium-range missile group
3.1 Economies of scale bring cost effects
3.2 A window to restart the era of land power:
A window to revive the era of land power:
Regarding China’s intermediate-range missiles, two important characteristics have been recognised by cyber forces. They are range and economy. Internet public opinion now accepts that the range of China’s intermediate-range missiles far exceeds the range of the United States’ mobile airfields plus carrier-based aircraft plus ship-based cruise missiles. In economic terms, it is estimated that the production cost of 900-1100 intermediate-range missiles is equivalent to the cost of a US aircraft carrier fleet (one aircraft carrier plus 4-8 combatants plus 50-60 carrier-based aircraft plus 1 submarine) [10].
| U.S. aircraft carrier battle group (manufacturing cost) (millions of dollars) (2021 data) | |||
| Ship Type [13] | Quantity [13] | Original manufacturing unit price (M $) | Original cost (M $) |
| Aircraft carrier（CVN-78） | 1 | 12471.0 [15](2021) | 12471.0 |
| Cruiser（CG） | 1-2 | 1000 [14] (2021) | 2000 |
| Destroyer (DDG51) | 2-3 | 739.2 [16](2021) | 2217.6 |
| Frigate (FFG62) | 2-3 | 943.73 [17](2021) | 2831.2 |
| Submarine (SSN774) | 1 | 1807.4 [18] (2021) | 1807.4 |
| Auxiliary (TAO 205) | 1 | 591.6 [19] (2021) | 591.6 |
| Air superiority fighter (F-35) | 20-28* | 94.4 [14] (2021) | 2360 |
| Strike fighter (F/A-18) | 30-36 | 29 [14] (2021) | 1044 |
| Surveillance（E-2C/D） | 4 | 80 [14] (2021) | 320 |
| Electronic Warfare(ES, EA,E-2D） | 14 | 80 [14] (2021) | 1120 |
| Rotorcraft (UH-60M) | 6 | 15.8 [20] (2021) | 94.6 |
| Cargo (C-2A) | 2 | 38.96 [14] (2021) | 77.92 |
| Total manufacturing cost | 26,935.3 | ||
| Tabulation: Ye Qiquan ( 叶其泉PPPNet www.pppnet.net) | |||
Table 4: US aircraft carrier battle group production costs
If the third characteristic, Lethality (or damage effect), is confirmed by a small-scale exploratory battle, then China’s intermediate-range missiles can comprehensively outperform the US weapon system in all three aspects that make up effective range.
If this possibility is finally confirmed, it will not only lead to the decline of American power, but also reopen the era of land power suppressing sea power.
| Cost exchange ratio(Chinese anti-ship missiles VS U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups) | |||
| Item | Unit Price (M $) | Exchange Value (M$) | Equivalent quantity (pcs) |
| Dongfeng 21D | 24 | 26935.3 | 1122 |
| Dongfeng 26 | 30 | 26935.3 | 898 |
| Tabulation: by Ye Qiquan( 叶其泉PPPNet www.pppnet.net） | |||
Table 2: Cost exchange ratio between Chinese anti-ship missiles and US aircraft carrier battle groups
If this possibility is eventually confirmed, the US sphere of influence will automatically shrink. China does not need an all-out war to force the United States to retreat. That is a huge temptation for China. Therefore, launching a small-scale war of exploration or demonstration is an irresistible temptation for China.