European Uncertainty on chinese unification

(Note: This is a political commentary article of a predictive nature. It focuses on the axis of the development of political science and tries to provide a tool for political thinking. Most of the arguments in the article cannot be supported by documentary sources, so their reliability and authenticity cannot be verified.)

(在讨论中国的统一问题时花一个主要的部分来讨论欧洲，可能超出绝大部分人的思维惯性。但事实是欧洲可能成为中国统一行动以及后续的中美冲突过程中的最大风险因素。)

• 欧洲中国关系的不确定性
  • 持续但散在和虚弱的对华友好历史
  • 现在的对华友好基点的不稳定性
  • 坚定的反华政治中心
  • 坚定的反华民意中心
  • 2022年以前的中国对欧洲政策
  • 2022年以后的中国对欧洲政策

二 欧洲权力结构的不稳定性

2.1 2022年战争对欧洲政治权力的削弱

2.1.1 乌克兰壕沟分裂欧洲至少50年

2.1.2多重消弱效应

2.1.3 错失与俄罗斯合解的历史机会

三 欧洲政治前途的不确定性

3.1 欧洲国家边境的不确定性

3.2 俄罗斯新安全边界的不确定性

3.3 欧洲混乱范围与强度的不确定性

3.4 欧洲的地缘政治前途的不确定性

四 欧洲参与2026亚洲战争的不确定性

五 新权力秩序下的政治偏向的不确定性

六 欧洲的价值与体现途径

(research outline)

Abstract:

The history of military progress is a history of the search for more effective weapons. Weapons are tools used to destroy enemies. The ultimate destructive effect of a weapon can be perfectly reflected by its “effective range”. The earliest recorded battlefield weapon in China was the pestle. This is an effective weapon for controlling physical strength. After the Bronze Age, the spear quickly became the dominant weapon on the battlefield. It could achieve the same destructive effect at a slightly greater distance than the pestle. At the same time, the cost of updating weapons did not cause financial hardship. The bow suit was the first long-range weapon in history. Its appearance changed military theory. Military combat shifted from group conflict to relying on geography to kill the enemy without contact. Although the bow was a revolutionary advance, it failed to replace the spear as the dominant weapon on the battlefield for more than a thousand years. The main reason for this was its high economic cost. Finally, the bow had a brief history as the dominant weapon of the Mongol Empire. About 100 years after the appearance of firearms in history, they quickly overshadowed the glory of the bow and arrow. It replaced the bow when its range was inferior to that of the bow. When its use was still limited (it could not be used on rainy days), it replaced the historical status of the bow and arrow. The main reason is also economic. It doesn’t cost more to make than a bow and arrow. Its training costs are much lower than those of a bow and arrow. It costs much less to store and maintain than a bow. It is also much cheaper to use than a bow and arrow. This allowed it to replace the bow and arrow as the dominant weapon on the battlefield, even though its range was shorter than that of the bow. Later improved firearms also followed this path. The heavy machine gun was a key weapon in the First and Second World Wars, but the reason it did not eventually become the dominant weapon was economic. The revolutionary V1 and V2 rockets and the huge heavy artillery could not overcome the inferiority of the air force and navy, again for economic reasons. The Tiger tank, which had the leading offensive and defensive capabilities, was eventually defeated by the weaker T3, T4 and Sherman tanks. The reason is also economic. Although many countries now have missiles with ranges in excess of 10,000 kilometres, they are unlikely to become the dominant weapons on today’s battlefields. This is further evidence that economic factors determine the value of weapons. If it is eventually proven that the “effective range” of medium-range missiles exceeds that of the aircraft carrier battle group, the decline of the aircraft carrier will be inevitable. The decline of the political power parasitic on carriers will also be inevitable. The “effective range of a weapon” consists of three factors: killing distance, lethality and economy.

Key Words:

War; Development; History; Weapon; Effective Range; Killing Distance; Lethatlity; Economy.

I. The history of war is essentially a history of the development of the effective range of a weapon.

1.1 Definition

(1) The effective range of a weapon:

The effective range of a weapon consists essentially of three matrices. Range; Lethality; and Economy (ability to be used on a large scale).

1.2. First generation dominant weapons : Pestle and Pike

Looking at the history of ancient Chinese warfare, records show that before bronze technology was applied to warfare, the dominant weapon in warfare was the heavy wooden stick (Pestle, Pestle Club). After bronze technology was applied to warfare, the dominant weapon in warfare was upgraded to the Pike (long lance) . There are two bases for this upgrade. Firstly, to achieve the appropriate killing effect, because the killing distance of a pike is greater than that of a pestle; secondly, the comprehensive upgrade from a wooden pestle to a pike (long lance) will not cause the collapse of the national economy.

1.3 Second generation dominant weapons Bows and arrows

Figure: The first generation of long-range weapons in history – bow, crossbow, trebuchet

The bow and arrow were the first truly long-range weapons of destruction in history. It was the first revolutionary advance in weaponry. The advent of this weapon changed the face of war. For the first time, it was possible to intercept by taking advantage of the terrain and to win the battle by killing the enemy without physical contact.

However, in more than a thousand years of recorded history, the bow and arrow has not replaced the pike (long lance) as the dominant weapon of war. The main reason for this is that the cost of the weapon limits its effectiveness. The high cost of production; the high cost of storage and maintenance; the high cost of training personnel; these economic factors prevented the bow and arrow from becoming the dominant weapon of the ancient Chinese army in the more than a thousand years that it coexisted with the pike (long lance). It was not until the Mongol Empire that bows and arrows were upgraded to become the most important weapons in ancient warfare.

At the Battle of Crecy in northern France, the shorter range and less lethal bow defeated the longer range and more lethal combination of crossbow and heavy cavalry. The logic is that economy determines the outcome of a war or campaign. Economy is the most important factor in the effective range of a weapon.

1.4 Third generation dominant weapons: Firearms

1.4.1 Hand Cannon (Huochong):

When the range of hand cannons was less than that of bows and arrows, they quickly took over the leading role from bows and arrows. The reason for this is that the production cost of hand cannon is not more expensive than that of precision bows and arrows, but the training and usage costs are obviously better than those of bows and arrows. It can be seen that the role of effective range on the battlefield is far greater than the role of killing range.

Figure 12: The hand cannon replaced the domain of the bow and arrow when its range was less than that of the bow and arrow.

1.4.2 Musket, Rifle and Machine-gun:

Figure 12: Firearms once dominated a period of war history

The firearms developed after the hand cannon have a better range, a faster firing speed and a higher efficiency of use. The pursuit of greater effective range is reflected in the simultaneous pursuit of greater range and firing speed, taking into account economic costs. The heavy machine gun has a longer range and a higher rate of fire, but the economic cost makes the heavy machine gun only a key weapon during the First World War, rather than a decisive or dominant weapon.

1.5 Fourth generation dominant weapons: Artillery:

1.5.1 Cannon in Napoleon Era

1.5.2 Sea Power Cannon

1.5.3 Mobile Cannon

Figure : Mobile artillery dominated the flat battlefield of WWII

The relentless pursuit of greater range and more effective lethality meant that artillery was bound to appear on the battlefield. The Napoleonic era was a brief era of decisive artillery victories. But the economic characteristics of artillery limited its historical importance. It was not until the Second World War that mobile artillery (tanks) became the dominant force on the European battlefield.

Weapons of sea power:

Because of the ship’s high load-bearing capacity, heavy and bulky artillery can be mounted on board. This led to the development of ship-mounted artillery with super-high calibre and range. The mobility of the ship essentially ensures the reusability of this artillery in time and space windows.

This gives ship-based artillery a comprehensive advantage over land-based artillery in terms of range, lethality and cost. Because of its range advantage, ship-based artillery can destroy land-based artillery, but land-based artillery cannot destroy ship-based artillery. Thus began the era of naval superiority in the history of warfare. Superior naval power protected the military and political superiority of the Spanish, British and American empires.

Figure 14: Over the past 400 years, ship-based weapons have always had the advantage of killing distance and effective range.

1.6  Sixth generation dominant weapons：Composite range weapons:

The Asian battlefield of the Second World War was the most modern showcase for the development of weapons technology. It most fully embodied the theory that “the effective range of a weapon determines the final outcome of a war”. With the range of the mobile airport and carrier-based aircraft far exceeding the artillery range of the battleship, the battleship and cruiser completely lost their expected combat effectiveness. There was even a case where one of the most advanced battleships (Musashi) was sunk by aircraft taking off from a carrier on its maiden voyage.

Figure 15: Compound-Range Weapons Determined the Outcome of the Second World War Battlefield in Asia

1.7 Seventh generation dominant weapons：long-range weapons:

Represented by the V1 and V2 missiles, a new generation of long-range weapons officially entered the battlefield. But the revolutionary, state-of-the-art V1 and V2 could not reverse Nazi Germany’s air deficiency and battlefield inferiority. This is because the V1 and V2 do not have the economy that the leading weapons of war must have.

The maximum range of the missile now exceeds 10,000 kilometres. But long-range missiles are still not the dominant weapon in conventional warfare. For economic reasons, long-range missiles do not have the power to dominate the process of conventional warfare. Ukraine, for example, decided to give up its existing long-range weapons because it could not afford to maintain and service them. Even if North Korea has the capability of long-range missiles, it will not be able to use this weapon in actual conventional warfare.

There is another extreme possibility. It is the possession and use of weapons that are too expensive, which becomes the main reason for the user’s ultimate failure.

Economy, repeatability or affordability are the most important factors in the dominant weapons of war. Their importance even exceeds the killing distance and damage effect.

II. Economy is the most fundamental characteristic of the dominant weapon

2.1 Social organizational capabilities promote social and economic capabilities

2.2 Continuous warfare capability is the fundamental support for armed capabilities

2.3 Economic power ultimately determines the outcome of the war

III. The significance of China’s medium-range missile group

3.1 Economies of scale bring cost effects

3.2 A window to restart the era of land power:

A window to revive the era of land power:

Regarding China’s intermediate-range missiles, two important characteristics have been recognised by cyber forces. They are range and economy. Internet public opinion now accepts that the range of China’s intermediate-range missiles far exceeds the range of the United States’ mobile airfields plus carrier-based aircraft plus ship-based cruise missiles. In economic terms, it is estimated that the production cost of 900-1100 intermediate-range missiles is equivalent to the cost of a US aircraft carrier fleet (one aircraft carrier plus 4-8 combatants plus 50-60 carrier-based aircraft plus 1 submarine) [10].

Table 4: US aircraft carrier battle group production costs

If the third characteristic, Lethality (or damage effect), is confirmed by a small-scale exploratory battle, then China’s intermediate-range missiles can comprehensively outperform the US weapon system in all three aspects that make up effective range.

If this possibility is finally confirmed, it will not only lead to the decline of American power, but also reopen the era of land power suppressing sea power.

Table 2: Cost exchange ratio between Chinese anti-ship missiles and US aircraft carrier battle groups

If this possibility is eventually confirmed, the US sphere of influence will automatically shrink. China does not need an all-out war to force the United States to retreat. That is a huge temptation for China. Therefore, launching a small-scale war of exploration or demonstration is an irresistible temptation for China.

3.3 Political power depends on overall military capabilities

Abstract:

At least three of the four anchors for world peace have fallen into chaos. All 4 anchors are in chaos under a slightly stricter standard. War, the last political means, is already on the table for the world’s top powers. Picking up the military tool has become tempting to more and more national leaders to deal with their issues.

The United States, China, Europe, and the Arab world can be identified as the four main anchors of world peace. Regardless of the actual strength and historical trajectory, these four poles have a great influence on world peace and stability. Their stability or chaos will overflow their own geographical boundaries and then radiate outward.

United States: Since the Subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, political stability has not been restored in the USA. The U.S. government has been doing its best to steer this super big ship. For the past 15 years, its basic course has been fairly correct. However, the stabilizer of this supper ship is becoming weaker and weaker due to the following three major factors. Driven by the habit of war dividends, the USA will continue to promote the intensity and scope of wars.

Europe: Originally, Europe has been a major political stabilizer in recent decades. But since the “2022 war” (I mean the war started on February 24,2022 in Ukraine. I will call it the “2022 war” from today, because it is not a war for Russia and Ukraine only), Europe has fallen into instability. I will predict that Europe will continue to experience instability for at least the next fifty years. The colonized attributes(link to) over Europe will become heavier and more obvious. The ability to avoid war is getting weaker and weaker.

China: Originally, China is a typical example of world development and world peace. But it is clear that since Trump pushed the US-first policy in 2018, the Chinese economy has entered an unstable cycle. Inward investment in infrastructure construction, investment in military industry, and outward expansion of the economic market have become China’s main work directions. Using military force to stop the U.S. economic blockade has increasingly become a “correct choice.” For this option, the Chinese have more and more confidence.

The Arab world: The Arab world recently can be counted as a stable pole under slightly strict standards. But the fact is that Iraq, Libya, Syria, Iran, Afghanistan, Yemen, and Sudan are not politically stable countries. It is very easy to drive the Arab world into chaos or war. The Arab world had expected the Soviet Union to intervene in Middle East affairs since the day Israel was founded. Now they broadly expect China to intervene in Arab affairs to balance American power. Very similar to Africa, the major public opinion in the Arab world has the urge to overthrow the American system.

Sorry for the delay of the main content. Recently only one part-time guy works to run this website.

Keywords

War, Peace, Stabilizer, 

New Concepts

 Four main anchors of world peace.

They are the USA, China, Europe, and the Arab World.

2022 War.

Author names the “2022 War” as which started on Feb. 24, 2022 in Ukraine, because the war actually is not for Russia and Ukraine only. 

War is the main tool for the USA to manage the world and benefit itself.

The colonized Europe is weak to avoid war, and will be weaker and weaker.

China will be closer and prefer military tools. Chinese have the capability to stop, to defeat American in a long-term war.

Major public opinion in the Arab World and Africa is to turnover the American System.

( Main content Coming Soon)

[Sorry for the delay of the main content. Recently only one part-time guy works to run this website.]